MICHAEL RICHARDSON
22/10/2008 9:57:00 AM
Sri Lanka's Government says its armed forces are in the final stage of a campaign to annihilate the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, the rebel group that has been fighting for 25 years to carve out a homeland for minority Tamils in the north and east of the island state.
Some hardliners in the Sinhalese-dominated Government and military claim the rebels will be wiped out by the end of the year.
In the history of modern counter-insurgency, this would be a rare armed victory over a potent uprising one that would stand in stark contrast to the failure of the United States, NATO and Australian forces in Afghanistan to crush a resurgent Taliban.
China has provided arms and other assistance to the Sri Lankan Government in its fight against Tiger separatism. But some of Sri Lanka's friends worry that advances by government troops into Tigers' strongholds in the north of the country in recent months are sowing seeds of disaster.
They caution that the military thrust needs to be accompanied by a more effective relief effort for several hundred thousand Tamil civilians affected by the fighting. Some also want to see a ceasefire and the re-launch of political negotiations, citing the way the Indonesian Government settled the long-running conflict in Aceh with separatist rebels by working out an autonomy deal that maintained national unity.
Under pressure from Tamil politicians in India's southern state of Tamil Nadu, which has ethnic and cultural ties with Tamils in Sri Lanka, India's Prime Minister Manmohan Singh told Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapakse in a phone call at the weekend that he was deeply concerned about the ''deteriorating humanitarian situation'' in the fighting zone.
He urged Sri Lankan authorities to protect Tamil civilians caught in the crossfire. He also warned there could be no lasting military solution to the struggle and urged political negotiations.
Earlier in the month, Australia's Foreign Minister Stephen Smith made a similar appeal in a Canberra meeting with his visiting counterpart from Sri Lanka.
The Colombian Government withdrew in January from a Norwegian-brokered peace process involving direct talks with the Tamil Tigers, charging that rebels had been using a ceasefire declared in 2002 to re-arm. Its position now is that only military power can defeat the Tigers and their use of terrorist tactics, notably frequent suicide bombings and political assassinations.
Once the rebel organisation has been dismembered, a political solution involving elections and local autonomy for the northern and eastern provinces where Tamils are concentrated can be applied.
The Government's view is reinforced by a former Tigers commander in the eastern province. Now an ally of the Government, Colonel Karuna Amman, says the rebel leadership will never settle for autonomy and will use ceasefires and negotiations only as a tactic to buy time and strengthen its position.
Concerned at the threat of more suicide bombings as the Tigers come under strong attack in their northern heartland, the Government has launched a registration drive for Tamils in Colombo.
So far, the Government's tough approach has yielded significant gains, although at a heavy cost in lives and to the country's finances. Eastern Province has been back under Colombo's control since mid-2006 and now the rebel zone in the north is shrinking as rebels retreat in the face of the Government's numerical superiority, stronger firepower and better military strategy.
As the noose around the Tigers tightens, the Government needs to be careful that in going in for the kill against armed rebels and their leaders it does not alienate Tamil civilians whose support the Government must win if it is to solidify hard-won gains on the battlefront and achievea lasting settlement of the conflict.
Michael Richardson is a security specialist at the Institute of South-East Asian Studies in Singapore.
mriht@pacific.net.sg
Source
22/10/2008 9:57:00 AM
Sri Lanka's Government says its armed forces are in the final stage of a campaign to annihilate the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, the rebel group that has been fighting for 25 years to carve out a homeland for minority Tamils in the north and east of the island state.
Some hardliners in the Sinhalese-dominated Government and military claim the rebels will be wiped out by the end of the year.
In the history of modern counter-insurgency, this would be a rare armed victory over a potent uprising one that would stand in stark contrast to the failure of the United States, NATO and Australian forces in Afghanistan to crush a resurgent Taliban.
China has provided arms and other assistance to the Sri Lankan Government in its fight against Tiger separatism. But some of Sri Lanka's friends worry that advances by government troops into Tigers' strongholds in the north of the country in recent months are sowing seeds of disaster.
They caution that the military thrust needs to be accompanied by a more effective relief effort for several hundred thousand Tamil civilians affected by the fighting. Some also want to see a ceasefire and the re-launch of political negotiations, citing the way the Indonesian Government settled the long-running conflict in Aceh with separatist rebels by working out an autonomy deal that maintained national unity.
Under pressure from Tamil politicians in India's southern state of Tamil Nadu, which has ethnic and cultural ties with Tamils in Sri Lanka, India's Prime Minister Manmohan Singh told Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapakse in a phone call at the weekend that he was deeply concerned about the ''deteriorating humanitarian situation'' in the fighting zone.
He urged Sri Lankan authorities to protect Tamil civilians caught in the crossfire. He also warned there could be no lasting military solution to the struggle and urged political negotiations.
Earlier in the month, Australia's Foreign Minister Stephen Smith made a similar appeal in a Canberra meeting with his visiting counterpart from Sri Lanka.
The Colombian Government withdrew in January from a Norwegian-brokered peace process involving direct talks with the Tamil Tigers, charging that rebels had been using a ceasefire declared in 2002 to re-arm. Its position now is that only military power can defeat the Tigers and their use of terrorist tactics, notably frequent suicide bombings and political assassinations.
Once the rebel organisation has been dismembered, a political solution involving elections and local autonomy for the northern and eastern provinces where Tamils are concentrated can be applied.
The Government's view is reinforced by a former Tigers commander in the eastern province. Now an ally of the Government, Colonel Karuna Amman, says the rebel leadership will never settle for autonomy and will use ceasefires and negotiations only as a tactic to buy time and strengthen its position.
Concerned at the threat of more suicide bombings as the Tigers come under strong attack in their northern heartland, the Government has launched a registration drive for Tamils in Colombo.
So far, the Government's tough approach has yielded significant gains, although at a heavy cost in lives and to the country's finances. Eastern Province has been back under Colombo's control since mid-2006 and now the rebel zone in the north is shrinking as rebels retreat in the face of the Government's numerical superiority, stronger firepower and better military strategy.
As the noose around the Tigers tightens, the Government needs to be careful that in going in for the kill against armed rebels and their leaders it does not alienate Tamil civilians whose support the Government must win if it is to solidify hard-won gains on the battlefront and achievea lasting settlement of the conflict.
Michael Richardson is a security specialist at the Institute of South-East Asian Studies in Singapore.
mriht@pacific.net.sg
Source
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